Hatch supports UK Government in publishing steel strategy report

Hatch was engaged by the UK Government to develop a comprehensive assessment of the UK steel sector. Last week, the Government released three reports consolidated in a 150‑page analysis. The reports assess the country’s long‑term steel demand outlook, domestic production capacity, technical capability and supply chain gaps, as well as options to close the gaps. These documents form a core part of the evidence base underpinning the UK’s steel strategy and highlight the critical opportunities ahead for the sector.

The findings provide unprecedented clarity to the opportunities and challenges facing the sector at a pivotal moment, as the UK advances major clean energy ambitions, expands critical infrastructure, and accelerates its net zero transition.

The reports forecast that UK steel demand could reach 14.0 to 15.4 million tonnes per annum by 2050, with a cumulative market value between £223 billion and £248 billion, depending on localisation scenarios.

“We are seeing a fundamental shift in the UK steel landscape,” said Jonathan Lee, senior principal in Hatch’s Advisory practice. “Growth across construction, wind energy, electric vehicles, automotive manufacturing, and transmission and distribution is accelerating long‑term demand. At the same time, the UK is facing a domestic production shortfall of about 7.3 million tonnes per annum by 2050. That gap represents a major opportunity to reinvest, strengthen local supply chains, and build the future capacity the country will need.”

While the UK Government produces hundreds of research reports each year, this assessment is notable for its scale, depth, and forward‑looking analysis. It includes:

• Long‑term demand projections to 2050

• Upstream and downstream supply chain gap analysis

• Evaluation of green steel adoption pathways (with potential for up to 98% green steel production by 2050)

• Detailed technical options to close capacity and capability gaps

• Sector‑specific insights across construction, automotive, energy, nuclear, and more

The analysis provides industry leaders, investors and policymakers with the evidence required to guide capital planning, support industrial decarbonisation, and accelerate UK manufacturing resilience.

Key insights from the reports

• The UK produces enough scrap and clean energy potential to support expanded electric arc furnace (EAF)‑based green steelmaking but will require upstream investments in virgin ironmaking such as direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity.

• There are major opportunities in heavy plates, flat products, hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) products, and electrical steels, representing more than £90 billion in cumulative market gap value.

• Increasing localisation of manufacturing in wind and automotive could unlock an additional 1.4 million tonnes per annum of demand by 2050.

• Planned transitions at Tata Steel and British Steel could enable 100% low‑carbon domestic crude steel production in the long term.

Accessing the reports

All three reports are available on the UK Government website: UK steel strategy demand assessment.

Readers can access both the executive summary and the full technical assessments.